Discussion: NAOC predictions!

Time for some pre NAOC hype. Who will win?

My thoughts...
With Louise Oram and Emily Kemp skipping the NAOC, Ali Crocker should sweep the sprint, middle and long and with that get automatic qualification for WOC in middle and long. Equally important and valuable that will give the US women three racers in each of middle and long in Scotland).

On the mens side I'm going with a Canadian sweep with home town boy Erik Kemp in the middle, Will Critchley in the long and Damian K in the sprint though Will is a threat in all three of the races.

For the relay I think the US gets the nod on the strength of their women (are all of the top US women at this year's NAOC?) and the junior relay should be very close.

After only winning once in three decades the US should win their third straight Bjorn Kjellstrom Cup. The Future Champions Cup that finished in a tie in 2012 may be too close to call again in 2014.

As a side note it is really wonderful to see that the NAOC has quickly become *the* most important race in North America like it should be. When GHO hosted in 2006 we wanted to take it up a notch organizationally and really hype the competition. I think we achieved that. In 2010 BC raised the bar with fabulous terrain and arena atmosphere, DVOA raised the bar yet again in 2012 and now Ottawa may have to host the race every year given all the pre-race and weekend extras they have organized. (I guess that is the danger of raising the bar even higher). The NAOC is now a "not to be missed" event. So where is it being hosted in 2016?

I was witness to some talks this weekend, nothing definite. I heard three possibilities, one is a very long shot. I don't know if much should be revealed publicly of the contents of these talks, because there is external party involvement and if there is too much talk of alternate venues that aren't linked with the external party, it could well be bad for the deal.

I will stick my neck out here and say that Samantha Saeger will win the middle.

NAOC is definitely a must race for me, except that I'll be at a wedding in the other nation's capital this weekend. 2010 and 2012 were the two most impressive events I've been to, and I suspect 2014 will be even better. Have fun!

Ali/SamAli
Will/Eric/Will

USA for BK and FC.

Pink Socks, what order are those predictions in?

I'm guessing Ali for the middle and long, and Sam for the sprint (insider info is that Ali won't be running the sprint).
On the men's side, Will for the long and sprint, and Damian for the middle.

Canada for the BK cup with a strong men's side but US slightly ahead in the FC Cup.

Order in SML. I don't have any insider info, nor did I really do any research.

Someone will miss punch/ get injured that people are predicting to me in the top 3.

I'm going to throw it out there that someone will MP/DNF and that would have being the difference between victory for said nation, but instead they will suffer a humiliating defeat

I hear that those Will guys are loose cannons. And I have very reliable sources.

Plus, are you sure you're not all hedging your bets because there's so many Wills these days?

Has anyone thought about what happens if Sergei Ryzhkov wins? He has a green card so would be NAOC champion but at WOC 2015 would have to run for the country where he has a passport.

He is ineligible for NAOC, as the rules require the winner to be a citizen. He will not, as I understand it, count for BK Cup standings either.

Orienteering Canada looked at that quite carefully when putting the official rules together with the IOF. As an IOF regional championships eligibility is restricted to passport holding citizens and would not be eligible for that Regional Champion personal spot at WOC. The WOC spot goes to the first passport holding North American citizen in the competition.

As an IOF regional championships eligibility is restricted to passport holding citizens

Well, no. Only if you read the IOF Rules in a very specific (wrong) way, and certainly not in any way for non-elite age groups. Restricting age-group eligibility to citizens seems to be a wholly Canadian initiative, IOF Rules say nothing about passport-based eligibility for age groups at Regional Championships (nor, for example, at WMOC).

Here's the rule (emph. added):

WOC
WCup
JWOC
ROC
WRE
6.2 Competitors who are representing a Federation shall have full passport-holding citizenship of the country of that Federation.

The rule only applies to athletes who represent a Federation, for example, by participating in the BK Cup, a competition among federations.

So the BK Cup eligibility rules seem to have a clear ground in the IOF Rules, but certainly not (a) either overall eligibility rules for NAOC in elite categories, nor (b) eligibiliy rules in non-elite age groups.

Eligibility is cleanly spelled out for the European Orienteering Championships and the Asian Orienteering Championships: you must represent a Federation (so Rule 6.2 applies) and if you are representing a non-European Federation, you may still participate, but you aren't eligible. Note that there are no age-group competitions at EuOC. There is no similar rule for NAOC as part of the most recent IOF Rules.

Canada is free to make up its own rules, and the restriction to citizens may or may not be appropriate, but don't justify your rulemaking by pointing at the IOF.

I beg to differ T/D.

Though not linked to from the main rules document (which should be amended by the IOF) there is a separate rules document for the NAOCs governed by the IOF. This document was in large part created by Orienteering Canada's Rules committee but at the end of the day it is an IOF document.

The entire document can be found here.
Rule 4 discusses eligibility:
"4. Eligibility
Competitors representing member Federations of the IOF, defined by the International Olympic Committee as belonging to the North American continent, can compete in the NAOC. The participants must also be passport holders of the country of their federation.
Non-eligible competitors representing North American Federations and other competitors from Federations of the IOF outside of the North American continent can compete in M/W21E but will not be eligible for NAOC titles or medals."

That seems pretty clear to me.

OK, so I am wrong on my (a), but (b) is still purely Canadian rulemaking:

These rules apply to the Men’s and Women’s Elite Classes. Other classes will be contested under the auspices and rules of the organizing federation.

Fair enough - I can't argue about the Canadian rulemaking. I had thought that the rules were passed by and approved by OUSA before being finalized but I could be wrong.

I never meant to imply anything about the eligibility for other classes. I don't know what eligibility rules apply for age classes.

Same as for the elite, which seems harsh. Passport-holding citizenship of a North American country with an IOF-affiliated national Federation.

For NAOC2012 we had potentially 3 different "winners" in the elite categories depending on citizenship. From the NAOC2012 website:

ELIGIBILITY FOR THE TITLE OF IOF REGIONAL CHAMPION FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION

To be eligible for the IOF Regional Champion for the North American Region, a competitor must be a member of an IOF federation in the North American region and a passport holding citizen of the country in which they hold federation membership.

ELIGIBILITY FOR THE TITLE OF NORTH AMERICAN CHAMPION

To be eligible for the North American championship title, a competitor must be a member of an IOF federation in the North American region and a citizen or legal permanent resident of the country in which they hold federation membership.

So, you could be the winner with the fastest time but not eligible for any title other than winner. You could be the NA Champ in the elite category but not the IOF NA Regional Champ if you didn't hold a passport. For the non-elite age groups, there is no IOF NA Regional Champ so not an issue.

The distinction may be a fine one, but in the top 40 in the latest OUSA rankings in M21, I count about 5 or 6 people for whom it is material, one in the top 10 for whom it was material as of last year. So, not small potatoes.

There's titles, and there's bragging rights. Around here, we do quite well on the latter.

The IOF rules governing the NAOC were primarily drafted by Canada's rules committee, but were also vetted by OUSA rules committee, and I'm pretty sure they went through both the COF and OUSA boards for approval before sending them to the IOF. However, they only apply to the official IOF Regional Championships, not to other age classes.

What happens in an age group class when the winner is from overseas - distinction between winner and champion? (I think) in Australia we recognise 1-2-3 but the first Australian gets the mallee root.

One would wander, where did this thread went of course, I will make some predictions, easy ones: All 3 days F21+ will be dominated by US ("boos" go to Canada for not making sure their best ladies are present, for whatever reason). M21+ competition goes like that: Middle will be tightly contested - top 3 will have 2 Canadians and 1 US, Long - difficult to say, but I think the pattern stays, with possible movement around top 3, I say we well have an American winner. Sprint will be dominated by Canadians, I've seen them last fall at Canadian Nationals, they are very impressive, Will C, Damian K, Eric K, and Robbie A., and Sergei L. is still recovering. They could have had top 5,but I do not think that will happen.
Sprint relays will be exiting, despite the rain, Top 2 US, third to Canada.
BK cup stays with current holder, USA and second round of "boos" goes to Canada for not making sure their top ladies are present.
All predictions are for NA medals, I am sure we will have Euro influx by some very decent orienteers from France, Sweden, Czech Republic and others.

Obviously everyone is going to have perfect races this weekend, which is how it usually happens. I think I picked Critchley to win 2 races two years ago and that went well for him.

Plus, I don't want to give anyone extra motivation

All the names have been mentioned already but a couple of wild cards to watch out for the weekend.

Patrick Goeres ran well at Canadian Champs this summer and I think he'll podium and make a relay teams. The Canadians might have two MB men on their top team (has MB ever produced a female national team member?)

All Mike Smith historically has done in North American racing is win medals at big races.

Why is it just men commenting on the elite categories?

Two skiers to watch out for. Former Canadian JWOC member Colin Abbott is easily the fittest person at NAOC (ski races for the Yukon Elite Squad and raced recently internationally for Canada). He has the last start in the Long with lots of dudes to reel in.

And another name to watch for is Steffan Lloyd, from Ottawa. A local skier, very good distance skier and excellent runner. He's been out to a few local races, I would think OOC being a good developmental club would have targeted him for technical training and he should race well. He starts right after Jeff Teutsch and Critchley and in front of Wyatt Riley and Eric Bone. I don't think any of those guys can out run him and he may surprise. Or he could blow up real good.

Just as long as Barrable doesn't sweep the golds. We'll never read the end of it...

Chip shot at Nick, Nev. I think Mark L. will take care of your concerns.

GB: No one is more disappointed than we Ottawans and Canadian orienteers as a whole that Emily Kemp will not be competing at the NAOC. Besides being a great athlete she is a darling with the local media.
We'll miss Louise, too, but were prepared for that as she did not event participate in the Canadain Nationals in her home province.
Sometimes life just gets in the way of a good thing.

¡Viva Mexico!