Discussion: O areas slowly decimated by beetles nationwide

For years we've seen the toll taken by pine beetles at LROC and RMOC events in Laramie and Colorado. Apparently these tree deaths were only a warning of what is to come. An article in today's NYTimes describes the infestation that is moving northward through the pines of the Eastern Seaboard, eventually all the way to Maine, but currently as far north as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. A few things I didn't know from the article:

1. In an infestation that scientists say is almost certainly a consequence of global warming, the southern pine beetle is spreading through New Jersey’s famous Pinelands. [The beetle] tried to do so many times in the past, but bitterly cold winters would always kill it off. Now the winters are no longer cold enough.

2. Winter nights of about 8 degrees below zero are needed to kill most beetles...such bitter nights used to happen several times per decade. But the last night that cold in the Pinelands was in 1996, and the beetle outbreak was first noticed five years later.

3. It is a striking example of the way seemingly small climatic changes are disturbing the balance of nature. [Many say this is] a warning of the costly impact that is likely to come with continued high emissions of greenhouse gases.

4. On a recent tour [we saw] dense stands of woods, thick with spindly pine trees and impenetrable underbrush — usually on state land. Long ago, fires would have helped keep the forest more open, but they have been suppressed across much of the country for a century...that has left many forests in an overgrown, unnatural condition, especially vulnerable to beetle attack because the trees are too stressed fighting one another for light, water and nutrients.

OUSA, individual O clubs, and orienteers themselves can help by calling for more aggressive local forest management that includes thinning and controlled burns. And of course individuals can help by tracking their annual gasoline consumption and vowing to reduce it each year by driving less and less, and buying more efficient cars. How many gallons of gas did you pump into the atmosphere this year?

1600

I was aware of the influence of the lack of extreme cold temperatures on the spread of pests of this type in western North America; didn't realise it was an issue on the east coast too. (I'm assuming it's a different species if -8 F/-22 C is the magic number - the discussion I'd heard in places like British Columbia suggested that the threshold there was more like -35 to -40).

Yes -35 to -40C for Mtn pine beetle. At a recent conference I was at a Mtn pine beetle expert was asked how far east the pine kills are likely to spread given that Alberta is now trying to stop the spread eastwards as it moves into the Province. The answer? "The Atlantic Coast"

2000-2020 carbon impact for BC estimated at 270Mt C

http://www.norsemathology.org/longa/classes/Climat...

Blair, it is a different, but related, species.

What they don't get, the emerald ash borers and the Asian longhorned beetles will ...

754 gallons so far this year, with a month to go.

going from the past few winters to a global warming conclusion of causation is a big leap without much data. it rarely gets below 20 F in the sierra foothills at 3000 feet, and bark beetle damage seems to be independent of temperature here. may be different species, but infestations seem to be likely tied to drought. in dry times, the trees may generate less sap, and the local university botanists contend that beetles thrive when they have less sap to deal with. a worthwhile question might be how much water is being used, especially in view of the long standing practice of moving water from forest areas to populated areas that may be increasing consumption.
not to say that global warming does not exist, the polar icecap data is pretty clear on that. just what are and are not effects is unclear, and gasoline consumption may not be related to beetle population growth, who knows. best to look at all factors, including total energy use. it cost me 37 K five years ago to install two independent solar generating systems (6 kw photovoltaic for electric and vacuum tube solar with circulating antifreeze system for heating water, plus a rack of marine batteries with dual converters for power during off hours. zero dependence on the grid and the best surge protection you can imagine. i have lost several hundred footer pines to bark beetle, but reducing the energy footprint is a long term effort, not an easy fix. bark beetles have been around a long time, as have gypsy moths which devstated eastern forests a couple of decades ago. long term management of forests is a lot more complex than tracking gas consumption, and my figure for the year is just about 275 gallons (being retired cuts down on the driving).

Bark beetle infestations are tightly tied to drought-induced water stress. The causes of regional scale mortality of pinyon pine in the US SW are well studied. More frequent and more severe drought creates a "double whammy" of drought and and beetle mortality. The severity of the multi-year drought about 10 years ago in this region resulted in greater mortality than the drought in the 1950's. .

But it is also likely linked to periods of wetter conditions as well as the global hydrological cycle intensifies through severe wetness and drought. High precipitation in the region from I believe 1980-1995 or so allowed rapid tree growth and tree density and as a consequence greater competition for water during drought. The key question is whether these regional scale impacts are persistent to cause a regime shift in the ecosystem. That will depend on how resilient the ecosystem is. But it is clear that many ecosystems are crossing thresholds and undergoing persistent regime shifts. (eg black spruce to aspen post-wildfire in Alaska).

These examples (drought, temp, fire induced or combinations therein) are very much an anthropogenic climate change impact

Very interesting posts. I had to look up anthropogenic...a good word to remember. I'm sure I'll be able to fit it into a few sentences in the future.

The best post was buzzard's, from the foothills of the Sierras (Auburn? Lincoln? Weed?):

...It cost me $37K five years ago to install two independent solar generating systems (6 kw photovoltaic for electric and vacuum-tube solar with a circulating antifreeze system for heating water, plus a rack of marine batteries with dual converters for power during off hours. Zero dependence on the grid and the best surge protection you can imagine....

I've taken the liberty to add some punctuation, but it is nice to see someone on a/p who has an even smaller carbon footprint. I estimate my right foot pumped less than 50gallons of gasoline into the atmosphere this year, driving only rental and share cars occasionally. But I'm definitely not off the grid here in the big city.

And I'm glad to report to Mike that we have successfully eradicated the Asian Long-horn Beetle from NE Illinois. I served on the volunteer task force that searched all summer for infested trees to remove and burn. But the Emerald Ash Borer has been in the area for only a couple years, and I'd estimate that already at least HALF the ash trees here have been infested and killed in that time.

2013 Gasoline Usage Summary:
Mr Wonderful......1600
jjcote.....................754
buzzard................ 275
chitownclark............50

I'll add that most of my gas was burned commuting, to get to my job at a company that makes automobile parts.

A whole stack of infestations plague the UK too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-1916...
plus Dothistroma Needle Blight (Lodgepole)

Not just beetles, but it is interesting that the view here is that they're due to exotic imports and mutation/adaptation, rather than climate change ecoshifting.

Yes, unfortunately a few of the Asian Longhorns escaped to Cincinnati. They've just begun strip logging the East Fork Wildlife Area (adjacent to our East Fork State Park map) in a last ditch effort to keep them from getting into the huge park. Unfortunately, the east side suburban homeowners have not been very cooperative in letting officials log out their shade trees, and so far they have not been able to achieve the containment success that was seen in Chicago.