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Training Log Archive: Swampfox

In the 31 days ending May 31, 2016:


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Tuesday May 31, 2016 #

Note

Biked out to 7 Mile Lake, which is actually 8 miles out of town. It used to be named 8 Mile Lake, but when the US entered WWII, many local place names involving numbers were deceptively changed in order to throw off the German or Japanese forces should they ever had mounted an invasion and made it this far. It was too much trouble to change the names back after the war, so there you are--7 Mile Lake, 8 miles outside of town. Yeehaw!

Monday May 30, 2016 #

Note

Biking felt okay with my back, and I reckoned running would only re-aggravate things, so biked around town and a little out into the countryside and passed on trying to run/jog. The town really felt emptied out though here and there it was possible to detect wafts of smoke from people grilling some of their favorite vegetables.

Sunday May 29, 2016 #

Note

Went running down Crow Creek behind Veedauwoo for the first time this year, and made no effort to try to keep my feet dry as I knew several low lying moist areas would be more like seas of slow moving water, which they were.

Quite oddly, I saw several great blue herons and a pair of campers dressed up like bow hunters or snipers, but with dogs that totally dispelled the camouflage effect. Also a stashed mountain bike with trailer.

But actually, it wasn't those things that were odd. What was odd was that about 20 minutes from being done, I started getting a stitch, though instead of the usual side stitch, this was exactly the same except it was in my upper back, slightly off to one side. I'd never had a back stitch before, but couldn't think of any reason why it couldn't be possible, and, like I said, it felt exactly like a side stitch feels.

Usually after you become aware of a side stitch, you think about it for a little bit, and then some more time passes and you stop thinking about it so much, until at some point you realize it's disappeared.

But that's not what happened this time--if anything, it got more intense, and it was still with me when I finished up. And it was still there even after I stopped and was driving home. By which time it was gradually occurring to me this wasn't a back stitch, but a pulled muscle. Which seemed incredible to me--how can you pull a back muscle when you're not doing anything but just jogging along? I mean, if I had been lifting cowgirls or 100 lb bags of bagels, you could understand it. But just jogging along?

For a while I was thinking it had to be blamed on bad voodoo. These days bad voodoo doesn't get near the respect it should. Lots of people wonder how in the world could Trump possibly be the Republican Presidential nominee (I know, I know, "presumptive") and the answer is obvious: bad voodoo.

After pondering the possibility for a while though, I came to a different conclusion. This was much more likely to be a very minor sympathy back injury in honor of those stalwarts--Boris, Charlie, and Peter--who have been brought low one or more times in the recent past by debilitating back injuries. So I just figure I'm in good company.

Still, pulling an upper back muscle while you're just jogging along? What could be next? Tearing a rotator cuff while lying prone and motionless on a sofa? Spraining an ankle while you're sitting down and putting on a sock? Developing carpal tunnel syndrome while setting a compass bearing? Mercy!

Friday May 27, 2016 #

Note

Streamered out at Pitcher Hill for the One Cowboy Relay. Or maybe it's the One Cowgirl Relay--I can't remember which it is now. Well, it will be a one person relay either way, and that's for sure.

After having used Pitcher Hill and been entirely happy with the mapping, after having streamered one control and then going on to the next control, I didn't quite like the relationship between the 2 features, and made a note to slightly move one of the features on my master file (won't affect what runners get here because we're using existing paper stock). And while I was examining that relationship in the field, I went to a nearby "boulder field"--marked with a single black triangle. It seemed kind of marginal, but there were rocks there, in about the right spot, so good enough.

Except that when I was looking at the file at home with the map enlarged, I saw the boulder field symbol was actually a mine shaft (black "v") on the map, and I definitely didn't see any mine shaft out there--nor can I imagine one being there in that particular spot. Must have been a drafting mistake, and it's just funny that I never caught it until now, because it's in an area I've run through many times, and there are only several black features on the map in that area.

Thursday May 26, 2016 #

Note

Biked late in the day, after a storm dropped rain and hail; the temps never rebounded so biking was on the chilly side, even with a medium weight jacket that works perfectly fine on cold ski days.

Wednesday May 25, 2016 #

Note

Finished streamering at Devils Claw. Lots of snow fields remain in the terrain, and I left footprints across as many as I could. Not too many flowers were up there yet, but it won't be long before lupines burst forth in blooming happiness.

At the last possible moment, after I had streamered the last control left and I had already started back for the truck, something made me stop, glance at the map again, and turn back around to add one more control before the final control. I don't know really what came over me, but resistance was futile.

Legs were still quite stiff, about the same as last time. Perhaps they would enjoy some mild breezes. As it was, by the time the sun was going down it was getting chilly quickly on my hands.

Tuesday May 24, 2016 #

Note

Biked, rested from running.

Monday May 23, 2016 #

Note

Gates remain closed so ran out to Devil's Claw (and back) to begin streamering the course there. "Begin" was the operative word because my slow pace plus the run in and back meant I could only get to 2 controls in the allotted time. Sometimes progress is modest; other times it is minuscule.

Legs were surprisingly sore and stiff from 2 days ago, and less surprisingly my right side was not doing well by the end. Will need to make another offering to the Running Gods later on tonight.

Sunday May 22, 2016 #

Note

Rode south against the wind, had the wind at my back for halfway back when I ran into much colder air and a wind reversal, followed shortly by cold rain (is there any other kind? not around here!). Chilled but still alive when by the time I made it back home. Some hot tea aided my revival, and some guitar completed the recovery.

Saturday May 21, 2016 #

Note

Streamered the Day 1 course (at Moose Outlet) for the Rocky Mountain O' Fest.

I ran while I was streamering--the first time I've run since crashing--though calling it running might be overly generous. It was more like something faster than walking and occasionally resembling something a runner might do while going at 1/2 normal speed.

The problem was the same problem I had from last Fall and over the winter--something is not right in my right side, generally from the upper inside thigh right on up into the abdominal area about where the hip bone is. I had hoped that there would be at least one silver lining from this unplanned extensive running break, which is that whatever the problem was, it would have healed up over this period. Hopes dashed! It does give some useful information, however--if the issue were a strain or tear, surely there would have been some, if not total, improvement over nearly 2 months of rest. That there has been no improvement suggests some other underlying issue. Back to the drawing board.

Biked for an hour late in the day, with some nice wind out of the east. Didn't even crash once--ha!

Friday May 20, 2016 #

Note

As the song goes, I was back in the saddle, again.

I had some letters for the Post, and could have driven down there, but it was so nice out that I thought maybe I could give biking a go. After all, I've been riding a trainer indoors for 2+ weeks now.

I was going to take my mountain bike, thinking that would be easier on my shoulder, but as I was about to wheel it out I thought I could at least hop on my road bike and ride it down the driveway and into the street to see how it felt. It felt fine, so I took the road bike instead. The Post Office isn't even 10 minutes away, so after I did that, I just kept on going, Forrest Gump style. And while I didn't ride across the country several times, by the time I was back home I had been out for a bit over two hours.

My shoulder was the least bit of a problem. Surprisingly, what *was* a problem was trying to keep my head tilted up enough to see forward. Maybe somehow I damaged or weakened some muscles and/or ligaments when I plopped onto my head, because keeping my head held up was pretty tough. Hopefully that will get back to normal quickly from here.

Breathing wasn't a problem at all--even on the uphills I had into the wind. Time to try some running.

Thursday May 19, 2016 #

Note

Finished streamering at Diamond Bay. It is really wet out there. The streams are very swollen and Diamond Bay is the fullest I've ever seen it.

Picked up more cans along the way, all of which will be recycled and turned into a shiny new Ford F-150.

Wednesday May 18, 2016 #

Note

Spent the last 3 hours of the afternoon streamering controls at Diamond Bay. Didn't see a speck of a deer or elk, though there were abundant amounts of moose tracks in evidence. I heard some frogs and one Bewick's Wren that sounded like it was hunting for spiders from Mars--though it could have been I misheard and it was only after regular spiders. The whole area is the wettest I have ever seen it, thanks to all the repeated snowstorms in April and May. Many pasqueflowers and marsh marigolds for nice juxtapositions of purple and bright yellow. It was alternating warm/cool/chilly depending on whether the sun was out, or behind clouds, or if it was hailing. Fortunately the hail was light and nothing over nickel size. This time.

For amusement, occasionally I practiced sneering and singing "No More Mister Nice Guy", partially to be prepared just in case Mister Trump should win out, and partially just because it's classic rock that will never be held down no matter what.

I think Diamond Bay is the single best O' area we have in the Laramie Range, due to a diversity of sub-terrain types, plus very varied running that demands a high level of fitness in some parts in order to move efficiently, and where less fit/poorer orienteers lose gobs of time. It was stunningly beautiful out there today.

Monday May 16, 2016 #

Note

Thanks to Bubo's explanation elsewhere, I now see what happened with the speaker sound I was getting from TioMila. When I went to the web site, I just assumed I was at the main page and read away. In English. Without it crossing my mind that everything was in English. Of course, had it been in Swedish I just would have read that and not thought anything about it either. And when I clicked on Liveljudet--written that way, in Swedish--it was hard to guess a Liveljudet on a different page would give a different result. Had I gone to the Swedish page and clicked through, I would have seen a link that looked identical, for Liveljudet--except I now understand that would have taken me to the main (Swedish) arena announcing.

Having said that, it remain a mystery to me why I ended up at the English page rather than the Swedish page in the first place. Oh, well! Maybe it was Dalarna voodoo.

Note

Cool--now the rain in town has switched to snow. Nothing like Spring in SE Wyoming, and I'm really looking forward to doing vetting later in the day! (if you actually think I will be vetting later in the day in a rain/snow mix, then--ha!--you need to rethink that proposition.)

And you have to love the forecast for tomorrow: chilly with slight chance of rain....and very big chance of snow.

Note

Spent some time this afternoon updating the race notes at the LROC web site for the first 3 of the Rocky Mountain O' Fest days. Now if I can just get the Forest Service to say whether or not we can switch the venue for the 1st day, I can get nearly everything finalized in fairly short order.

If I could find some Finnish speakers, I would try to arrange for some Liveljudet, but I'm afraid that's just not going to happen. ; )

Sunday May 15, 2016 #

Note

Another (somewhat funny) sign of progress: I sneezed today and it didn't flat out floor me (because of the cracked ribs). Up till now, I have been very careful to guard against any sneezes, and only one snuck through--it really hurt, which is why I was so careful afterwards.

Saturday May 14, 2016 #

Note

I have been listening to Liveljud from TioMila for a bit, and I have to say it sounds quite a bit more like Jukola than TioMila so far. Were Finnish speakers brought in as a cost savings? Maybe it's something the US Champs hosts should look into this year--that would be quite a first, the first ever US Champs to be announced from start to Finish in Finnish.

Note

So far it's still a whole lot of Finnish from TioMila, and not so much anything else. Though I did understand first Finnish word--someone said "Hakarpspojkarna" and I understood it!

Okay, that's not really a Finnish word, but of all the Swedish club names, Hakarpspojkarna is the one that looks plausibly Swedish.

On the Liveljud page, there is an instruction that: "If you're having a problem with the player not loading and you don't hear any sound, then try the web player without java script." Which is great if that's the problem you are having. Unfortunately, there is no instruction to tell you what to do if all you hear is Finnish. I guess you just have to learn Finnish.

Note

Finished vetting and streamering controls for Neal at Remarkable Flats. It was pretty raw out. Down in the valley, it was mostly sunny. Up top at the exit, it was mostly overcast with very low clouds. A few miles down the road towards the map, it was completely overcast with dimmed light. As I got close to Remarkable Flats itself, I entered light fog--which, luckily enough, began to lift as I was walking out into the map itself. There was cold breeze out of the N-NE (which was why it was borderline fog) that was just on the edge of what I could handle, based on how I was dressed (double jackets and knit camp again) but even so, I kept my drawing/writing hand in a pocket the whole time until I had to use it, and made my right hand carry the map and take the brunt of the elements. Nearly 2/3rds of the way through, the fig started rolling in again, the wind picked up, and it started dipping below what my clothes could handle. I would have simply quit and walked back in at that point, except the remaining 20 or so controls were very easy to streamer and more or less in line with the shortest way back anyway so...I just sucked it up and tried to work as efficiently as possible while not getting too chilled. Very glad to have the wind at my back on the way back in, otherwise I surely would have had to abandon the field to the wind and fog. Brrrrrr!

Friday May 13, 2016 #

Note

Hard to believe someone is going to be attempting a 2 kilometer long pizza, but I have to admire the thinking! It would be perfect at Tiomila.

Note

Continued streamering at Remarkable Flats. There was some chillier breeze out of the east, and lucky for me I had an extra windbreaker in my truck. So it was long sleeve t-shirt, light jacket, windbreaker, and a knit cap. With that, I was just about warm enough when the sun was out.

Note

Continued streamering at Remarkable Flats. There was some chillier breeze out of the east, and lucky for me I had an extra windbreaker in my truck. So it was long sleeve t-shirt, light jacket, windbreaker, and a knit cap. With that, I was just about warm enough when the sun was out--which it was, part of the time. April is the cruelest month around here, but sometimes May is not far behind.

Thursday May 12, 2016 #

Note

I'm pretty much fucked.
That's my considered opinion.
Fucked.


I had gone out to Remarkable Flats to start streamering for Neal, and had rather promptly run into a hunter, who was not happy and had his shotgun leveled at me.

Well, not actually--ha! Some of you may recognized those lines as the opening lines from "The Martian", which Tom Overbaugh had kindly suggested I might be interested in reading while getting better. I had heard of the movie, but had no idea it was based on a book, much less any idea the book might be any good. It only took a few pages before I knew I was going to really like the book.

But I did go out streamering--the first time I have been up and out since crashing--and I did in fact meet a hunter. He was out looking for turkeys and we talked for a bit; he was quite a nice guy. I told him I had never once seen or heard a turkey in the area (Remarkable Flats) he was in, and pointed out some nearby areas where I had seen and heard turkeys in the past.

It was quite a nice day out with just a bit of breeze, and it was fun to be out with a map again, looking at control locations, even if I was only walking.

Wednesday May 11, 2016 #

Note

A new record for post-crash inspired volume this morning of a little bit over 4000ml. That compares with when I first came home from the hospital, when the best I could do was about 1500 ml, so a lot better now.

Note

Yay--my home oxygen equipment is now all gone--another sign of progress. Funny thing with oxygen that I never knew: if you get put on oxygen in the hospital and are sent home with the service, you can't (at least not here) go off the service yourself--a doctor has to discontinue the service by order.

So I had to wear an oximeter overnight, and then, when the readings weren't high enough to completely satisfy my doctor, I had to convince him I didn't need the oxygen. I pointed out that I was feeling enormously better over the past week (true), that my day time oxygen levels were normal or better now (true), that while there might have been some night time dips, there was no way to know I didn't have those dips before the accident and that it could well just be part of my broken ribs limiting how long I could remain in a good sleeping position during the night (I've been getting up several times each night and usually spending at least some time in a sitting position on the sofa) (also true), and that I've started up with some small amounts of exercise again (also true) and felt I could do more as soon as I got the okay on my shoulder to do more. But the point that I think won him over was telling him I wasn't using the oxygen anymore anyway (also true.)

In my estimation having to worry about the clear coils of death (the tubing) at night when moving around and the possibility of tripping and re-injuring myself much outweighed whatever tiny benefit--if any--I was still getting from the oxygen while I was using it.

Monday May 9, 2016 #

Note

Set a new post-crash PR of 3750 ml of inspired volume this morning. I still have no idea what I could normally do, but at least things are moving in the right direction. O2 saturation has been good today, too.

Also picked up an overnight O2 saturation monitoring "watch", which, if the collected results are good enough, will mean the oxygen equipment will go away. It's been a while since I've used any oxygen at all during the day, and I've only used it sporadically at night. I can't tell that it does anything for me at all anymore (and really couldn't tell it did much even when my breath was shortest, during my brief stay in the hospital), and it's more a hassle than anything, what with a long plastic tube trailing behind me at night, meaning you always have to be careful not to trip over it or have it get hung up and have the end ripped off your face, etc.

Someone asked me earlier if it wasn't really great getting that pure oxygen, and referencing to seeing how sometimes football players are getting oxygen during the middle of games to help them recover when they're "gassed" (I guess). But, I don't know that the machine is delivering pure oxygen as opposed to air with a higher concentration of oxygen, and, at any rate, as I alluded to above, I never have been able to tell any real difference; for all I could tell it could just as well have been regular room air being cycled through some mystery box that makes various noises and sounds more like anything else like a fish tank (since the oxygen gets bubbled through a water container.)

Note

For those of you who might be coming to Laramie this summer for the Rocky Mountain O' Fest, should you drive around town, there is nothing you could see that would suggest Laramie had been part of the pre-recession "bubble" economy. And it wasn't.

Nevertheless, from an recent article about the city's current budget, sales tax collections are *still* running below the pre-recession peak of 2007. This is despite many homes and apartment units being added over the past 8+ years, some retail (not much though), and student enrollment growth at the university along with a number of major capital construction projects completed.

Thus, it can be inferred that what happened in the frothier real estate markets (huge amounts of mortgage refinancings with cash taken out as home appraisals rose along with home equity lines of credit taken and maxed out, second mortgages, etc) took place in Laramie, too, albeit to a lesser degree. And that inference is supported anecdotally by a constant number of foreclosures taking place over the past four years or so, at a fairly steady rate of 1-2 new foreclosures being listed each week, versus practically no foreclosures in the years leading up to 2008.

Note

Did 24 minutes on the trainer today. As a sign of some progress, 24 minutes today felt noticeably easier than 10 minutes felt in any previous session since the crash.

Sunday May 8, 2016 #

Note

Woke up this morning to a renewed Laramie winter wonderland. A reprise of the (much bigger and colder) snowstorm that took place on the same weekend last year. Spring time in SE Wyoming!

Neal Barlow was up this weekend streamering and looking over control locations for the O' Fest, and while he got a lot done on Friday, he was shut out yesterday by dense fog and rain up top that lasted 100% of the day, and I imagine with all the new snow on the ground he headed home this morning. But once he gets done re-jiggering courses and controls based on the work he did on Friday, he should be sending me updates and then, once the weather gets back to spring, I expect to be heading up top and doing some walking around with a map in my hand, and hanging streamers for Neal.

Somewhat ironically--in light of the snow--it was just on Friday that aspens and other smaller trees started budding out leaves.

Saturday May 7, 2016 #

Note

I have noticed two other odd things going on since la crash.

1) Normally, when I put my contacts in, I can wear them comfortably as long as I like. Even on those rare mistaken occasions when I have foolishly assented to doing one of "those" 24 hour racy things. But for the past few weeks, I've noticed that quite consistently by around the 12 hour mark, my contacts start to feel like they drying out and they start to irritate, and they either have to come out, or I have to re-moisten them. For the life of me I can't see what this could have anything to do with a bike crash, but there it is.

2) Since winter moved on about a week or so ago, I've spent a fair bit of time outside in the yard doing light gardening work. If I stoop down to pull out weeds or whatever and stay down for more than, say, 30 seconds or so, and then stand up, I am getting the most intense head rushes. Very odd, and I hope this isn't a sign that hemoglobin has dropped over the past few weeks. I know it was okay when I went to the ER for shortness of breath (because of blood tests run then), but I don't know that it was okay by the time I left (because I swear they took more blood for all those tests than a whole swarm of hungry vampire bats would have.) Plus. surgery afterwards must have meant at least some amount of blood loss. If I *have* dropped to the low end of acceptable hemoglobin levels, well, the blood thinners can't be helping matters.

Note

Well, now it's 16:48 and it is snowing like it is winter all over again! But that didn't stop me from finalizing my "indoor" designs for the first three "Daze" of the Rocky Mountain O' Fest. I would be there's a pretty decent chance I won't have to move a control, once I inspect the sites in the field. But you never know, and especially it could be some trees have come down on top of a control site, rendering said site undesirable.

Friday May 6, 2016 #

Note

Breathing so far feels better today, and I set a new PR with my friend the spirometer of about 3250 ml. Which makes me wonder what volume would have been normal for me pre-accident.

Note

2 walks today, the first in the early afternoon, thinking I better get out then as possible rain/t-storms was in the forecast.

The second walk was longer, something over 1 1/2 hrs, and part of the walk included a swing over to the hospital so I could sign up to see my medical records. And, now, back home, having just looked over several reports, I have learned something new: I had been told on my initial visit to the ER after the bike crash that I had 3 broken ribs. That's almost nothing--ha!--because it turns out the actual toll was 6 ribs, all on the left side. That goes a long way to explaining why inward bending, left sided jumping jacks have been hurting so good.

Note

Strangely, there seemed to be an awful lot of bees flying around today. Could there be any chance that was linked to yesterday's crash on I-80 of a truck bearing millions and millions of bees? Nah, surely not.

Thursday May 5, 2016 #

Note

Breathing didn't feel as good today, but it's very difficult to know whether it's perception or reality. Walked for about 1 1/2 hours on what was a very pleasant day, with a high of 71F--the warmest day of 2016 so far.

I spent some time reading more about PEs (pulmonary embolisms) which on;y reinforced my sense that the area is fraught with unknowns in terms of how long it takes to clear away clots or even if they will ever be completely cleared away, and in terms of the possibility of recurrence. My original thinking--without knowing hardly anything about the subject--was that since the clots in my arm were undoubtedly the result of trauma from the bike crash that once my body had cleared them away that I would be over and done with it all. But from what I read, it appears that's not necessarily the case, though the odds do seem to favor that outcome. Another thing that seems clear is that different doctors might likely treat identical PE cases very differently.

Wednesday May 4, 2016 #

Note

Warmest day of the year so far--67F. And walking around outside, it actually *did* feel warm. I walked today in two pieces, for a total time of somewhere between 1 1/2 and 2 hours. Quite nice.

The day's big (ha!) achievement was shaving entirely with my left hand for the first time since the crash. I was able to do a passable job with my right hand, but it always took much longer and I was less sure in the movements.

Today marked 4 full weeks since I crashed. It's gone by quickly so far. The daily headaches I had been having most of this time have disappeared, which is good. Now if I could just get my mojo back!

Tuesday May 3, 2016 #

Note

Most stellar spring day we've had so far this spring. Temps nearly reached 60F, and nearly all of the snow in the valley melted, leaving higher ground white rims to the east (Laramie Range) and south and west (Snowy Mountains), while the higher mountains to the south in the Rocky Mountain National Park stand out like 100% white snowy sentinels.

I took advantage of the conditions by taking three walks and gathering a small amount of aluminum to be recycled into Ford F-150s, which are apparently selling like gangbusters.

I also took a drive out along the Happy Jack highway, where even the open prairie was still 99% buried in snow. It looked to be melting fast, however, and I would guess much bare ground will emerge tomorrow.

Monday May 2, 2016 #

Note

Some signs of small--ha! very small--progress: last night I used my left hand/arm for the first time since crashing to cut celery. And this morning I used my left hand/arm for the first time since the crash to use a fork to eat with, so say goodby to the right hand/arm for those things.

And I guess that's the way it's going to be. Just gradually picking things back up day by day things I can do again with my left arm that I would normally use my left arm to do.

Note

Hmmmm, came in under the G this morning, well under, in fact, which I took as a sign from the gods that I was meant to breakfast on waffles this morning, which I did. They say a well disciplined kitchen is one that is always waffle ready, and I can only agree.

Took two walks in the afternoon, planted tomato seeds in between, and road the trainer for a whopping 15 minutes after dinner. I think my deep breathing is still being rib limited, but then there are those embolisms, too. Are they gone yet? If they're not, then how will I know? There remain some mysteries to this healing process. But it is fun sometimes to reflect on my new status as Titanium Man!

Note

If the polls are to be trusted, it looks like Cruz is going to crash and burn tomorrow. And it makes me wonder what in the world they could have been thinking in Cruz World Headquarters last week as they were strategizing Indiana. They could have gone after Trump in the one area where he is clearly weak and vulnerable, which is his teensy hands. But instead they choose to bring on Carly Fiorina as ther winning move???? Man. Highly paid consultants must have been involved on that one.

Sunday May 1, 2016 #

Note

I have no idea how widely it is being reported in the national news, or to what extent the average person would take note of it were they to come across the pertinent news item, but Wyoming is slumping hard now, and surely in recession. About 5000 jobs have been lost year over year in the oil&gas sector alone, and all the major coal companies operating in the state have declared bankruptcy in the past few months with substantial numbers of miners being laid off. Current sales revenues and sales tax receipts are off by about 20%--if I recall the numbers recently reported correctly. So Wyoming's economy, perpetually swinging from boom to bust with the commodity cycles, is now big time bust. A scant two years ago, it was booming, with many drilling rigs actively operating in regions of the Niobrara Shale. Unemployment figures were a tad above 2%--full employment, in other words--and only one or two other states (North Dakota, I think) could boast lower unemployment numbers.

On Friday, Wyoming's largest gas producer--Ultra Petroleum--filed for bankruptcy, which I believe makes it the 5th publicly traded oil&gas firm to have failed in 2016 (could be I've missed one or more MLPs operating in the sector.) Ultra Petroleum failed for the exact same reason basically which all the other failing firms in the sector have been brought down by: over optimism/confidence when prices were higher, leading to too aggressive use of debt to acquire more lease acreage in the rush to expand that virtually the entire sector participated in; not too many operators were looking down, or worried about the possibility of markedly lower prices, as starkly evidenced by their hedging activity. You made more money if you didn't hedge, so why bother? Now of course they all wish they had done a lot more bothering.

Ultra Petroleum won't be last to fail unless prices move sharply higher from here quickly--which seems unlikely. Still, no doubt many industry executives have their fingers crossed and are perhaps spending more of their Sundays in church saying their prayers. When you're down to prayers, well, it is a sign of the times, to quote from one recently departed (Prince.)

Coal will quite possibly or even likely will never come back to what it was even a few years ago. Wyoming coal is cost advantaged and low sulfur as well, so it could be that it could end up doing relatively well as higher cost (primarily eastern) mines close down one by one. And a colder winter would help matters considerable, as would higher natural gas prices--which will surely move higher some day. In the meantime, Wyoming's top lawmakers are going through all the classic steps as this downturn hits hard: anger, blame, denial, refusal to accept the new reality, etc. Their ideology requires them them to rail against the EPA and the "Obama war on coal" while rejecting any notion that the world is changing and that sooner or later global warming is going to mean stricter and not looser limits on carbon emissions, which will strike no place harder than the coal industry. Unless some more cost effective carbon capture technology can be developed--no easy feat, else it would have already been accomplished by now--Wyoming is facing a tough transition away from much state revenues from coal based mineral extraction royalties, a transition that could last for many years.

Tourism is and will be this year one of the few bright spots. Last year visitation to Yellowstone/Grand Tetons set a new record, and with subsequent sequential monthly growth in national employment and continued low gas prices, it seems reasonable to think that new records will be set this year. Hopefully so, because the state will need every extra dollar it can get as it weathers the current energy driven bust. Folks who show up for the Rocky Mountain O' Festival will be doing their part, and will be extra welcome this year!

Note

Had planned to hop on the trainer again today and aim for 15 minutes, but when the sun defied the forecast and popped out in the morning, I changed plans and headed outdoors to walk instead--first a walk of about 45 minutes in the morning, and then a longer walk for nearly 2 hours in the afternoon.

In between, Graham Baird was kind enough to swing by and say hello after skiing at Happy Jack. It was fun to see him though at first I didn't recognize him (he has grown something of a beard, the better to do course setting by, I should guess). We looked at some maps of his area for the O' Fest and talked some diverse geology related themes. It was good to see him.

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