Training Log Archive: iansmith

Over the past few days, I have been spending more time out of my air brace, as per my orthopedist's recommendations. The swelling in my left leg is all but gone, and I can move it around without discomfort. I can hop on my right leg and even raise my left leg to a horizontal position using only the muscles in the leg without pain at the fracture site.

Today, I did pushups for the first time in the past thirty two days. I was careful to put all my weight on my right leg, but previously, I would not have been able to adopt that position without pain. So, I did 50 pushups to celebrate.

Over the past week, I slipped into my old habit of consuming too much coke (the soda). At my peak consumption, I was drinking more than two liters per day. I stopped entirely on Friday, and developed a splitting headache on Saturday night. The evidence isn't conclusive, but I was going through Caffeine Withdrawal. This is even more incentive to avoid the stuff.

C • Decaffeination 6

Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the Horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds and shall find me unafraid.

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll,
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.

Context is everything when drawing meaningful conclusions from statistics. Consider this article. The headline: "Obama Added More to National Debt in First 19 Months Than All Presidents from Washington Through Reagan Combined, Says Gov’t Data."

What you all are immediately noticing is that this is a rather meaningless statistic because of inflation and our growing country. While inflation is well understood, accounting for variation in the size (and expense) of the country is much harder. The US Federal budget deficit as a fraction of GDP is a much more informative statistic. This data isn't that difficult to find and is much more telling. Consider the 20 years with the largest budget deficit as a fraction of GDP:

Year	Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
1943	28.05
1945	24.07
1944	22.35
1919	16.86
1942	12.04
1918	11.88
2010	10.64
2009	9.91
1865	9.75
1946	9.06
1863	7.90
1862	7.35
1864	6.35
1983	5.88
1985	5.03
1986	4.96
1936	4.76
1984	4.72
1992	4.58
1991	4.49

Thirteen of those years (1942-1946, 1918-1919, 1862-1865, 1991-1992) fall in World War II, World War I, the Civil War, and the Gulf War. (Note that FY1946 e.g. corresponds to July 1945 - June 1946 - thanks for the correction, walk).

Another four of those years, 1983-1986 were a period of deficit spending under President Ronald Reagan under Reaganomics and an expansion of defense spending to 6% of GDP. I am not entirely sure what the 1936 deficit cause is, though the deficit spending in the Great Depression is a likely candidate.

That the budget deficit over the past two fiscal years has been about 10% of GDP is legitimately disconcerting, and the costs of this must be weighed against the economic benefit of the federal government flooding the economy with cash. My knowledge of economics is too limited to make a decisive argument on that matter.

However, the article in cnsnews is deliberately and inexcusably misleading; it takes a meaningful and legitimate point of discussion and massively distorts it to better suit its political objective. CNS News' website states that "CNSNews.com endeavors to fairly present all legitimate sides of a story and debunk popular, albeit incorrect, myths about cultural and policy issues." While I haven't surveyed a large body of CNS News articles, describing this article as an "endeavor to fairly present all legitimate sides" is a complete load of bullshit. I should also point out that the article was written by Terence P. Jeffrey, the Editor-In-Chief of CNS News.

Entities that claim to be news organizations have a paramount (though apparently unenforceable) responsibility to present meaningful information. The only arguably meaningful sentence in the entire article is the following: "The first two fiscal years in which Obama has served will see the two biggest federal deficits as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product since the end of World War II."

It is unfortunate that while the analysis comparing Obama's budget deficits to absolute historical deficits is entirely without merit, many people reading this will be led to a conclusion that simply isn't supported by the data. This news source may as well drop any masquerade at legitimacy in favor of news articles with headlines like "Obama = bad" and "Opposition to this news source's political agenda is evil."

C • The Amazing Science - Statitics 8

Ted talks:
The Happy Planet Index
On the economics of terrorism
Lewis Pugh's mind-shifting Everest swim

"I have heard it said that drowning is the most peaceful death that you can have. I have never ever heard such utter bollocks." - Lewis Pugh, Lewis Pugh's mind-shifting Everest swim
"There is nothing more powerful than a made-up mind." - Lewis Pugh

I had an orthopedist appointment today with a set of x-rays of the injury. The doctor concluded that the healing was progressing very well. He noted that there is visible evidence of a hard callus forming around the fracture. A soft callus, made of collagen and cartilage, forms in the first few weeks after a fracture. My army of osteoblasts have converted that soft callus into a hard, bone callus, which has formed a bulge around the fracture, insulating it against movement. Now, my body will reabsorb the dead bone on the edge of the fracture, bridge the gap, and remodel the bone.

This is excellent news. Permanently implanting a rod in my tibia was a real possibility, but now surgery will be unnecessary. I can start physical therapy next week, and it is no longer necessary to keep my leg completely immobilized. My leg has not hurt significantly for about two weeks, and I have been encouraged to spend less time in my air cast. In four weeks, I will have another round of x-rays to assess the condition of my leg, at which point I may no longer need crutches. I have been instructed to start putting small amounts of weight on my foot to stress the bone.

Predicting my future state is difficult, but I am hopeful that I will be able to start running again in eight weeks (injury + 12 weeks). Biking may be possible in four to six weeks. I am ecstatic.

Skeptical dog is skeptical.

C • It might be callous .... 10

Plus 207 stairs - today was laundry day.

C • Laundry Day 1