Antony Green has several interesting pages on his
ABC site.
One very important thing I learned is that if you try doing below the line and stuff up that your vote will still count if you put an above the line vote as a backup. They look below the line first and if that doesn't work they will take an above the line vote.
Using the
Senate Calculator its pretty clear that the Lib/Nats will have an uphill battle to take the 4th seat in NSW, so the outside possibility is actually that the ALP may retain their 3rd seat instead. The front runners for the sixth seat (after Coalition 3, ALP 2) are still the Greens and the Right Wing (e.g. One Nation, Fred Nile, Shooters and Fishers, Family First, LDP etc among 35 above the line options).
Note that voting Lib/Nat will mean that after they get their 3 seats the remaining unused votes will flow to Fred Nile and then the other right wing parties except for One Nation which they put last.
So the options are now:
Green = R (Green), E (Voluntary Euthanasia), K (Future Party), AF (Democrats), AM (Socialist Alliance), AO (Pirate Party) and AP (Secular Party)
ALP = F (unnamed), M (ALP), AG (unnamed).
All other above the line votes will probably end up with one of the right wing parties - even AK (Stop CSG) which goes to Family First ahead of the Greens.