Training Log Archive: blairtrewin

Had hoped to take some frustrations out on the forest, having decided to be old today (hopefully one of these years I'll be fit enough to try taking the ultra-long on again), but instead it turned into another source of frustration. Felt OK in the warm-up and after the token-gesture 1 (whose purpose I presume was to be a de facto start triangle), then hit the tricky downhill 2 OK, but by then an old enemy had returned after some months of absence; my hamstring had pinged. Jogged a couple more minutes to see if it would run itself out, but I know this injury well enough to know that trying to press on it is the difference between a couple of days out and a couple of weeks.

This really wasn't the best of weekends (no fault of the orienteering events, which were put on well). I certainly didn't see the election result coming, as you'll have seen in my Thursday entry; I thought it was plausible that Labor might get a 51-49 result but in the wrong places to win enough seats, but didn't foresee the overall result, especially in Queensland. It's a mystery why the polling went so badly wrong in Queensland (and it was mostly Queensland); I don't recall a single poll in Queensland that underestimated the LNP two-party vote by less than 5%, whether that was state polls, state components of national polls, or seat polls. One Nation did better than expected and their preferences seem to have flowed to the LNP much more strongly than expected; some have suggested people are unwilling to admit they're One Nation voters when a pollster calls, but if so why did that not show up in the last Queensland state election?

(As for the policy issues: lots will be written about that, but I thought it would have been smarter politics to link some of the revenue from franking credits to an increase in the pension - perhaps taking some of the sting out of the backlash from older voters - and I was surprised that there weren't more commitment for big infrastructure projects in north Queensland, which would create far more jobs than a still-unlikely-to-happen mine which once it's built will employ fewer people than a suburban Maccas).

It was a long road back to Melbourne but I was glad to have company; it wouldn't have been a good afternoon/evening to have eight hours of solo thinking time (unsurprisingly I'd slept abysmally on Saturday night).

Long Hard 6 - Splits

It probably says everything that needs to be said for today that just about the best thing that happened for me today was an unconvincing 7-point win for Essendon at home to Freo. (I guess I did manage to score some National League points, but only because there were enough non-finishers and non-starters - I didn't actually beat anyone).

The bottom line with this course was that I wasn't fit enough or strong enough to be competitive on a steep physical area. Didn't really do much wrong technically, just couldn't run at anything like the pace that everyone else was, and couldn't run any of the bigger hills. Struggled a bit with the steep bits of contouring too, I think through lack of practice in that type of terrain. 10 was almost scary in its steepness.

Thought I might have been at risk of having to find another way home for my carload too, but the warning light which came on for no obvious reason coming out of Boorowa has disappeared again (and the car itself does seem to be running normally).

Middle Hard 1 - Splits

Morning run from work in the name of pre-road-trip logistics. Back reasonable but otherwise a pretty unconvincing run (although I don't think my first kilometre was quite as slow as 7.14 - thank those CBD buildings and what they do to GPS signals).

On the road to Wyangala tonight. The traffic getting out of Melbourne was ordinary even by its usual standards.

Felt tight through the hips this morning so decided to take to the water instead - not taking chances with a race weekend this weekend (including one of my increasingly rare NOL appearances). It felt like a slow and floundering swim, and the clock suggests that it was.

Hard to get a handle on this election (and the passing of Bob Hawke throws in another wildcard at the last minute). I find it hard to see the Liberals winning a majority, but am not totally confident that Labor will do so either. Since Labor will not win any seats from minor parties and independents and probably won't lose any to them either, they need to win a net 4 seats from the Liberals (after redistribution; I'm already counting Dunkley and Corangamite as Labor seats), with Liberal-Independent/Green contests mattering only in as much as they might give more options for Labor to form a government if they fall a bit short of the magic 76. Seat polls badly underestimated the Labor vote in 2016 (and in Victoria last year), but the ones that came out today are reasonably consistent with the national polls, so might be more reliable this time (although I think that the assumptions that are being made on Palmer/One Nation preferences are too favourable to the Liberals on past experience).

Another broad trend to note: last time the Liberals did anomalously well in the inner and middle suburbs of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and anomalously badly in western Sydney, both of which I attribute to reactions to Turnbull relative to Abbott. I expect these anomalies to unwind this time (at least to some extent).

Anyway, my tips:

NSW: Sydney doesn't seem to be swinging much (if at all). No net change ALP/Lib (gaining Gilmore but losing Lindsay). Might be a chance in Reid. Banks (a part of Sydney that seems to be trending demographically to the Liberals) seems unlikely to me, and I'd be surprised with Robertson too. Page might be a chance. I expect a swing against Labor in western Sydney but Lindsay is the only seat at risk there. Lots of independent action here: I think Tony Abbott will lose, think Kerryn Phelps has a decent chance of holding Wentworth (experience is that sitting Independents are hard to dislodge unless the party challenging them is doing well), and there are good chances in Farrer and Cowper too. Prediction: IND +2, LNP -2.

Victoria: there will be a big swing which will probably get bigger the closer you get to Melbourne, the question is what will it yield? Chisholm certainly, but there's not a lot of other low-hanging fruit. I think La Trobe and Deakin are toss-ups, and Casey and Aston possibilities. Of the group of normally safe Liberal seats, I think they will lose Higgins (more likely to the Greens than Labor), but will most likely hold on in Kooyong, Menzies, Flinders and Goldstein. The Greens are struggling in our part of town and I think Cooper and Wills are safe (this time). Decent chance of an independent win in Indi; I think the Nationals will hold on in Mallee, but not by much. Prediction: ALP +3, GRN +1, LNP -4.

Queensland: statewide polls consistently show a 3-4% swing to Labor statewide but little change in central/north Queensland, which suggests a big swing is on in Brisbane (again perhaps more the inner than outer parts). I see Forde, Dickson, Petrie and Bonner as excellent chances for Labor - probably won't win them all but will assume 3/4. Brisbane, despite its bigger margin, is one I see as a wildcard (and perhaps Ryan, either to Labor or the Greens, if a swing is really on in inner Brisbane). Leichhardt, not a mining seat, also can't be assumed to behave the same way as the other north Queensland seats. I suspect Herbert will just be lost but haven't written it off; people tend to forget that Adani was very much on the agenda in 2016 so there may not be many new votes to be won on the issue. Prediction: ALP +4, LNP -4.

SA: no change. I expect the Liberals to hold on in Boothby, and Rebekha Sharkie to hold Mayo easily. I think the best chance for an upset anywhere is Centre Alliance knocking off the Liberals in Grey.

Tasmania: no change. Not so confident about this, but I think Labor will hold their northern Tasmanian seats. One thing to note here is that seat polling has a history of badly underestimating Labor votes there.

WA: all of Hasluck, Swan and Pearce are a chance for Labor, but none are a sure thing. Will give them 2/3. ALP +2, LNP -2.

NT: there will be big swings against Labor here (from a vote inflated last time by protest votes in the dying days of the atrocious Giles government), but I still expect they will hold their seats - more confident about Lingiari than Solomon.

ACT: no change, although the new Canberra is a seat that the Greens may be competitive in in a worse year for Labor than this.

This all ends up with ALP +9, GRN +1, IND +2, LNP -12. This would give a Parliament with ALP 81, LNP 62 and a crossbench of 8 - a modest but workable majority.

A possible omen: I was at exactly the same place on election day 1993 as I will be this year - an orienteering event at Wyangala Dam. In 1993 I found what turned out to be the one Labor pub in Cowra to watch the results come in (apparently the publican at Woodstock shouted the bar when Paul Keating gave his victory speech). Not sure what we'll do this time but I'll be doing my best to channel my inner Antony at whatever gathering happens.

C • Chicken-counting? 6

Day trip to Canberra for work today. The logistics were going to be a bit too difficult for me to get to the ACT lunchtime and get myself back (in a respectable state) for the 2pm talk I was giving, so instead I did what is becoming a bit of a regular thing, an Airport West loop on the way to the airport. Definitely grinding the gears in the first couple of kilometres but felt all right in the end, more or less. Didn't set off any alarms this time.

I made my first sighting of the Canberra light rail today (although I wasn't going in its direction). The associated reorganisation of the bus timetables was definitely a positive for the trips I was doing (there are now buses to/from the airport every 15 minutes during the day, as well as a similarly frequent route from the Parliamentary Triangle to Kingston which was convenient for a lunch with an old school friend who might just be a ministerial chief of staff this time next week), although I gather the outer suburbs haven't fared as well.

Left home at 5.45am and got home at 9pm; it's a long day.

All Nations intervals, the full set this time. Felt very unconvincing and plodding but generally a couple of seconds faster than last week, so must be making some progress. Another small milestone in approaching a return to normal service (of sorts).

I've intermittently commented on the number of illegally unrestrained dogs here whilst I'm doing intervals, but today brought a twist on the theme, someone else doing intervals (of sorts) whilst in the company of an illegally unrestrained dog. Not in the company of any dogs (leashed or otherwise) was the substantial group of girls (probably mostly year 10-12 at a guess) on a group run; probably school cross-country season is approaching?

Warm-up and down, fairly interrupted by traffic (and getting around the waterworks in one street). Didn't feel terribly energetic but did manage to shake the sleepiness out of myself before the faster stuff started.

In another sign of return to normality, it was also the first time for a while I've done the full ride from home to work. Will have to find another route soon because La Trobe Street is about to be dug up for Metro Tunnel works. I also wondered whether the ATO auditors might care to have a word with the driver of the BMW with the number plate NOTAX.

Back after a month away which meant I had to re-learn how to do some of the exercises. Seemed to take me a while to loosen up but got into it eventually.

Clearly someone was taking the mickey with their electoral enrolment because there were reports today of an AEC letter addressed to "Edward Kelly, Glenrowan Pub, Glenrowan". Perhaps someone should tell them he's moved to Melbourne? (As someone said, there's no way he'd vote for "those Tory bastards", but I'm not sure whether his sympathies are Labor, Green or - this being Indi - independent).

An after-work session, swapped from Friday because a swim will be easier with Friday's logistics. Seemed to be floundering around a bit but got going in the end. Always feels strange to be doing this in the dark.

Nuisance problem of the day: split skin on the soles of both feet. It's a non-issue when running (or in the water after the first 10 seconds) but annoying to walk on.

I voted at lunchtime, having found the place in the vast expanses of the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre. It was a definite challenge working out how to rank the various racists, nutters, religious fanatics and anti-vaxxers competing for the bottom 25 or so places on my Senate ballot paper (Fraser Anning's mob got the uncoveted number 82 in the end). I was mildly amused to see that the Green how-to-vote card uses more paper than anyone else's does.

C • Green how to vote 1