Training Log Archive: blairtrewin

A sunny, cold morning at Fitzroy. Gradually got into the swing of it as it went on and finished off quite well, in advance of a day looking closely at temperatures from Merredin and votes from Hasluck and Boothby.

C • Do you know who Boothby is named after? 2

MFR Monday night from Dion's. At the moment I have good days and bad days with the Achilles and this was a bad day. Hopefully I haven't gone back to where I was last November - if I have my season will be more or less over. Did loosen up as the run went on but never comfortable, which was a pity as it was a nice run on a nice night from the ankle upwards.

Since people seem to think I have some level of special insight into election numbers (judging by the number of questions I got asked on the subject last night), my take on the situation:

- Labor is pretty much guaranteed 70 seats.
- Labor is highly likely to win Lindsay and Corangamite, although the ABC computer is saying both are very close - they are assuming the postal votes will behave as they did last time, but both seats were Liberal seats going into 2007 and Labor going into 2010, which means Labor should do better on postals this time than they did last time. (Incumbents normally have a bit of an advantage on postal votes because they have the benefit of an office to send the applications out; otherwise postals and prepolls tend to be a bit more conservative than the electorate as a whole, because a higher proportion of them are elderly).
- to get to 73 (which is what I think Labor will need to form a government), Labor will need to win at least one of Boothby, Hasluck or Brisbane (in decreasing order of probability). I think Boothby is the best chance of these. Labor are currently ~700 votes ahead there, though last time the Liberals won the postals by more than that. (The ABC computer factors this in, which is why they are currently showing the Liberals ahead).
- the fate of Denison is anyone's guess and anyone who tells you otherwise is either being premature or don't know what they're talking about. At the moment the Liberals, Andrew Wilkie and the Greens are within about 3% of each other, but the Greens will probably bridge at least some of that through the preferences of a socialist who got a couple of percent, and postals/prepolls (which the Greens normally do very well on in Tasmania, although as this is colloqially referred to as the 'bushwalker vote' there may not be as many of them in August as there are in November). If Wilkie doesn't come fourth he will probably be elected on some combination of Greens/Liberal preferences, if he does come fourth I think it will be Labor versus Greens (a wild card is that I suspect a reasonable number of Liberal supporters voted tactically for Wilkie so there may be more Wilkie 1 Liberal 2 votes than one might otherwise expect). None of this makes a huge difference to the big picture as I am fairly certain that either Wilkie or a Green would support Labor on confidence and supply.
- the final Senate seat in Victoria is also interesting - it's currently being called for the DLP but could go to any of the DLP, Family First (yes, this means Steve Fielding getting back), Labor or Liberal. The DLP and Family First gave preferences to each other and are only slightly apart at a key point in the count; whichever one stays in the count at that point will probably end up getting elected on major-party preferences (the Greens were only just over a quota so their second candidate, who would otherwise have got Labor preferences, will be out of the count by then).
- while on the subject of Senate votes, below-the-line votes are not counted on the night. From my experience about 20% of Greens voters vote below the line but only about 5% of others do, so the final Senate figures will be stronger for the Greens than their current ones are. This won't affect their own result (except for the outside chance of getting a second person up in Tasmania) as they've clearly won one seat in each state, but could affect preference flows elsewhere.

C • Below the line and Canberra 8

The late Andrew Olle used to say on ABC election night coverage that "whichever way you voted, the sun will still come up tomorrow". This morning provided plenty of evidence for this - it was a lovely morning to be out. I wasn't feeling as shattered as I thought I might have in the circumstances, perhaps because of the realistion that minority government will stop an Abbott-led government, if that is what materalises (and I think it's maybe a 60% chance), from doing anything outrageously ideological (like reintroducing Workchoices after promising not to, or purging climate scientists with unsound views).

The run was steady for the most part, heels still not feeling not quite right but manageably so (and no worsening with greater distance). Started to feel stronger in the final half-hour, and particularly the last 10 minutes, the best part of this run. Happy with the way I lasted the distance, still not confident that I'll handle rougher terrain (this run was pretty flat).

Election day run after an early morning session on the booth, a bit earlier than I thought because we had more people on than we needed. This was a bit of a relief after a 6am start to set up and get all the prime banner-hanging spots (not usually a major challenge at Rosanna Golf Links, where I have yet to see a Liberal before 7.30 in four elections).

As is traditional for me, my election-day run took in as many other polling booths as I could fit in (mainly in the name of greeting the comrades stationed there). It also took in the Yarra Flats trail with quite a few people (Lisa Weightman among them) going at a somewhat greater speed in the opposite direction.

Not the most brilliant of runs - I still don't feel as if I've properly settled back in. Struggling a bit on the hills today.

C • struggling on the hills today? 2

First trip since returning to the windswept winter wilds of Fitzroy, still reasonably well-populated. Faded away a bit later on after a reasonable start. Slept poorly, which may or may not have had something to do with seeing the results of Newspoll just before going to bed.

I was supposed to be having a massage after this but it turned out he'd changed his schedule while I was away and the message hadn't got through to me, so it will have to wait until Tuesday (I wonder if my post-trip Achilles issues are partly related to calf tightness). Did get to traverse Fitzroy on the bike and saw more election posters than would usually be the case, now that it's contested territory; the quirkiest of which was "A fairy dies every time someone votes for Tony Abbott'.

Lunchtime run around the Tan. Loosened up OK after an awkward start and handled the hill pretty well. Slower than normal for this circuit but I suspect traffic may have had something to do with that. This time the building works are on the (slower) inner track, and look like they may be for some time.

In my absence a new business of interest has opened next to our building (a branch of the Degani bakery, who were excellent when they were just a Clifton Hill and Fairfield operation but have lost a little of their quality through expansion). It seemed that another local-ish business was on its way out but South Wharf hasn't gone bust after all, at least for now (DFO is normally of no interest to me, but it also hosts the only reasonable bookshop within lunchtime walking distance of the office). The tramline relocation in Docklands Esplanade which was supposed to be finished six weeks ago isn't.

I lasted until 10.15 last night (with some help from Gruen Nation and the Chaser), but my timezone isn't quite right yet because I woke up at 5.20 without assistance from an alarm.

I won't object too much if that persists until Saturday as I will have an early morning festooning as much as I can of the fence of Rosanna Golf Links Primary with political propaganda before the Liberals do (not usually too much of a challenge at this particular booth). Jagajaga is a seat that the Liberals might win in a very good year once Jenny Macklin retires, but they're certainly not putting much effort into it this year - their candidate, not selected until a week into the campaign, is a student from the other side of town and the pile of mail I collected from my next-door neighbour last night didn't contain any Liberal flyers. (It's possible but unlikely that my address is on a "known enemy - don't let them know what we're doing" list, slightly more plausible that my neighbour knows my leanings and didn't keep the Liberal stuff).

Anyway, once the run started - a truncated version of a traditional Thursday in deference to injury issues, up through Bundoora - it was reasonable but nothing too special. A bit sore at times but warmed up OK, and didn't seem to get any worse through the run. Hopefully this is a repetition of what's come up after past European trips and will disappear after a week or two on hard ground, and not a repetition of October 2009; it does feel more like the former than the latter. It could be worse; one of my work colleagues turned up today with a ruptured Achilles.

In the act of adding a bit of distance at the end to take it up to 90 minutes without doing any more major road crossings, I found myself in a street 1km from home which I'd never been in - fun while it lasted.

The run more or less straight off the plane is something of a tradition of mine (if only to wake myself up a bit more before spending a day in the office clearing out 2000 emails). This one was based from the office - a bit of an extension of the traditional Tan loop, with smaller bits around Docklands and the Tennis Centre. Not a bad one as the sun came up, and a pleasant running temperature (a bit cold for anything else). Achilles loosened OK on the flat but still a bit awkward on some of the climbs.

Not for the first time on such a run, my insides haven't adjusted to the time difference as well as other parts of the body, resulting in a pitstop with 10 minutes to go.

I'm now back in Australia for a whole 16 days (possibly plus or minus one) before heading to the other side of the world (this time Exeter, for work).

In the air. Not too bad a trip with about 3 hours' sleep on each of the two main legs.

As always seems to be the case in Europe, there was a mixture of results; France, which I had planned as the prelude, turned out to be the competitive high point. I certainly need to be a lot stronger to be really competitive in the soft ground, particularly of the Nordic variety. Also a little concerned that the Achilles didn't really last the distance.