Discussion: Yeah, but...

My recollection of childhood is that there used to be more runs of 40+ than we have experienced in recent years, even if there were no 45s (and anyway, is 45.1 for a few seconds really a 45-degree day?).
Perhaps I am getting old and forgetful :)

Your memory's not entirely deceiving you, it's just that it's a bit selective.

On average, Adelaide has about 2.5 days over 40 per year, but there was a cluster of summers in the early 1980s with lots of them (seven in 1980-81 and 1981-82, five in 1982-83), and I'm guessing that it's those summers which stick in the memory, and not the eight summers with only nine 40-degree days between them which followed. The January 1982 heatwave was particularly significant; five of the six warmest overnight minimum temperatures on record in Australia happened in South Australia on the 24th (two of them in metropolitan Adelaide, at Waite and Parafield).

Like a lot of eastern Australia, the frequency of extreme hot days didn't really start to take off until after 2000 (at the time my PhD was written in 2001, a lot of sites showed no significant trend for extreme hot days, although they did for hot nights and cold days/nights). Over 2001-13, the average annual frequency of 40-degree days at Adelaide has been about 5/year, and over 2006-13, about 7/year.

And a day when it gets to 45.1 for a few seconds is definitely more of a 45-degree day than one where it gets there for no seconds :-)

I find these climate stats very interesting, though they certainly are depressing, but its the objectivity. I also think there's something about childhood memories which makes us weight then with more significance . How many older people do you hear ringing up local radio to talk about heat waves when they were young. And our perspectives adjust quickly- yesterday the radio announcer I was listening to in the afternoon kept talking about Adelaide's milder than expected conditions - ' only 43.6'!

Hi Blair, I note it hasn't rained at all in Canberra yet this year and that, after a deluge of 0.2mm fell on Perth last night, it is now the only remaining dry-for-2014 capital. Is this interesting or unusual? If not, how many more days would make it interesting?

Just looked at that - it's rarer than I thought. There are only two instances of Canberra being rainless through the first 16 days of January - 1965 (first rain 31 January) and 1954 (18 January). In 1965 there were only 4mm in the first three months of the year.

Some recent cases I can think of of places which took a long time to get off the mark are Kalbarri, WA (late May in 2009) and Marree, SA (Queens Birthday weekend in 2005). There's exactly one instance of an Australian site having a rainless calendar year, a site inland from Port Hedland in 1924.

Thursday or Friday next week you can get your umbrella out if the models are anything to go by.

Timed perfectly to coincide with the sprint camp! Cheers for the insights Blair. Looks like we have a good chance of outscoring 1954. Hopefully the rain gods are about as effective as Steve Finn.

While on the subject of notable Canberra stats, in a similar vein to the Adelaide ones, Canberra has reached 40 12 times, of which 8 have occurred since 2007 (1 in 2007, 3 in 2009, 2 last year and 2 this year, with a decent shot at a 3rd or 4th in the next two days). There was only one in the 22 years I lived there - and as that was in January 1973 I don't remember it (in fact, given that it was early January, we probably weren't there).

And how many times has Adelaide had 5 days in a row over 40? Not as often as Perth, I assume.

Twice, in 1908 and 2009. Perhaps surprisingly, it's never happened in Perth city (which specialises in long high 30s runs), but has happened twice at the airport which is further inland.