Discussion: Nationals preview

Aim of this thread: Discuss who you think is going to take the medals in M-20, W-20, Men's Elite and Women's Elite in each of the three races.
Will there be some surprises?
What will the winning times be?

Runners:
https://zone4.ca/register.asp?id=4885&lan=1&list=1

Race Distances:
http://dontgetlost.ca/files/Nationals-courses.pdf

Have fun with this thread so I can take my mind off the ridiculous number of things that still need to be done on the organizational side of things. ;-)

I'll start with the Men's Elite races:

Sprint:

Probably will be a battle between Serghei Logvin (GHO) and Will Critchley (Edmonton). I'm going with Serghei because of the McMaster connection.

Notable for some big names missing: Patrick Goeres, Graeme Rennie, Thomas Nipen, Robbie Andersson. Eric Kemp (Ottawa) could win but he will be in tough in a pure campus Sprint against Logvin and WC. Earlier this season I would have picked a mega-motivated Damien Konotopetz (Winnipeg/Calgary) to win 2 golds at Nationals, but he was MIA at Alberta Champs so no clue about him now.

1. Serghei Logvin
2. Will Critchley
3. Eric Kemp, Childs, Zhyk, Magnus J

Middle:

My first pick for gold is Mike Smith because Mike Smith wins medals at Nationals. Second pick was Brian May for the same reason. Sadly, neither will be there. Eric Kemp had some great races a few years ago in Hamilton. At least one top guy will blow-up real good in this race.

1. Eric Kemp
2. Will C
3. Magnus J or Zhyk

Long: There will be hills.

Again, in the summer I would have picked Damien Konotopetz for the win. A few years ago Jon Torrance would have been the pick, but no clue of his fitness. Critchley is the favourite now, but he's been a favourite in other races so we shall see.

1. Will Critchley
2. Logvin
3. D-Man Konotopetz, Kemp, Wyatt Riley, Alison Crocker

Oh, Bob is probably not doing any training in the week leading up to Nationals - just trying to win the 30 hour U.S. Adventure Racing Association (USARA) Championship!

I'll guess under 24 hours but it depends on the way the event uses short/advanced courses and optional CPs to get all the teams finished within 30 hours. Anyway, the Nationals Long will be Bob's recovery run and it should be interesting!

Seeing this thread makes me more motivated than ever to perform at Nationals. Regardless if I was MIA at Alberta Champs that does not mean a thing about my training and for the record I did end up running the AOA Champ courses for my own training. All I have to say is those guys on the National Team better watch out because they are the ones with the x's on their back not me. My job is to beat them and I can assure you I will be fighting for the medals, especially for the gold in the sprint. Best of luck to everyone, it’s anybody’s races.

M21 Sprint:
1. Damian
2. Will
3. Serghei

For M-20 courses, my money is on Runner99 (on Attackpoint)

You beat me to it! I definitely would not rule out an M-20 victory by Runner99. I would not bet against Eero T to challenge him for first place overall, but Eero is not COC eligible. These guys are both pretty young compared to some others on the course, but I'm betting they will hold their own.

Okay, I'll take the bait for W-Elite. Time for more motivation for the National Team!

I'm pretty sure there are only two WOC racers this weekend so they should be on the podium every race. Canada is missing two thirds of the WOC Relay and I think there's only one US international racing. I'll go with top three, regardless of citizenship.

Sprint:
1. Louise Oram
2. Alex Jospe
3. Charlotte Ward

All the cool Orienteers, like Jospe, did some campus training this week to prep for Friday. UK International Ward is studying at MAC and on the cross team so she should be fit. However, she's also in that grey-zone in which one thinks they know the campus but it's only been a month, could be a big mistake waiting to happen.

Middle:
1. Louise Oram
2. Katta Smith
3. ??????

There's a rule in Orienteering Canada that there needs to be a Smith on the Nationals podium. I don't want to put any pressure on Mia in W12 so I'm going with Katta. I think she has the experience to handle it. I have no clue on who's winning the bronze.

Long:
1. Louise Oram
2. Alex Jospe
3. Catherine Hoofd

For the big ridge and valleys of the Long, I'll go with the three fittest women in the field. I might have underestimated Hoofd, especially in the Sprint from living in Vancouver.

Louise Oram is a Canadian Orienteering Hall of Famer. If there was a HOF.

I would bet on Louise Oram for Middle and Long as well.

Speaking of Hall of Famers, I asked Pam James how many years she's been racing in the elite category at the Canadian Champs. She wasn't sure but the answer would be close to 30. She wasn't far back in the Sprint!