Discussion: Below the line and Canberra

Hasluck and the Canberra Senate seat are the two big issues remaining. Is it possible the 'below the line effect' could influence the Canberra result?
As for Hasluck, it seems the House depends on this. If Labour wins, the Libs can at best get 75 seats, so the independents will have to support the ALP to create anything at all resembling stable govt. But the ALP is behind at the moment. There will be a lot of absentee votes cast in the Pilbara from the FIFO brigade. Any sense on how that compenent of the absentee vote has performed in the past?

I've been offline for 24hrs and thought Blairs trog might give a simple answer to who won the election. Ha ha simple who was I kidding!

Canberra 2nd Senate is gone to Liberals - they have over 1 quota without counting any below the line votes.

Actually they've slipped slightly below 1 quota on recent counting, but should still get across the line on Democrat preferences unless the Greens and Labor do particularly well on postals/prepolls/below the line votes. Not an absolute certainty but I think still a 90-95% chance.

Hasluck - Labor did quite well on postals there in 2007, when I suspect numbers of FIFO workers were similar to this year. Two wildcards this time - the grey nomads who migrate north for the winter, and the last-minute enrolees whose enrolment got accepted as a result of the High Court case (these are declaration votes and won't have been counted yet).

OK, so the latest count has the Liberal on 99% of a quota on above the line votes, needing just 423 votes from below the line to make the "provisional" quota. Assuming the "provisional" quota doesn't keep moving I'd say its a bit better than 99% certain the Liberals will win the ACT senate seat.

The Liberal vote would need to drop below 32% (it's currently 33.0) for the Greens to have a realistic chance.

Just listened to Xenophon talking about the potential procedural changes that Windsor will probably make part of any deal. The hung parliament doesn't seem that bad now.