Well, skipping #4 might have been stupid from Alexei's perspective, but for another view on it see -
http://www.attackpoint.org/weeklyactivity.jsp/user...
For a more perfect analysis, you'd go back and run all the possible combinations, at race pace for all of it, under comparable conditions, then crunch the numbers, and maybe have one of those Eureka! moments. Or then again, you might look back and forth between the numbers and the map and figure, well, it depends...
No route is ever dumb just because someone else said it was. You get to make the final call.
Of course, I'd tend to be more convinced by the comments of the grandmaster...