Was trickier than I expected. I thought I was following a wiggle meant reentrant meant guaranteed, still ended up one off (to I imagine your intention)
I saw the water from the trail, but i convinced myself it was the smaller water just E. doh!
I guess the safest would have been to follow the large hill-spur all the way till you see the larger pond to the East and then cut towards #10.
Yeah, good call, kind of like Cooper's idea.