well Blair you are one of the most polictically "connected" people I know. Care to make some predictions for Saturday? total seats? key seats you know about?
I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, although I've been burned a few times so won't get too excited yet. Nevertheless, my predictions:
Seats: ALP 86, Coalition 61, Independents 3 (the two sitting plus Forrest in WA).
ALP 2PP vote: 53.5
Biggest swing to Labor: Leichhardt (Qld), with Ryan and Forde other seats on double-digit margins that I wouldn't be surprised to see go under.
Biggest swing to Liberal (there won't be many): Brand (Kim Beazley's old seat). Won't be enough to win it though.
Howard to lose Bennelong, Turnbull to cling on in Wentworth, and Costello to get a serious scare in Higgins. (I suspect he knows this too, and that the reason we haven't seen much of him in the last two weeks is that he's gone home to try to save his own seat).
Minister (apart from Howard) who I'd most like to see congratulating their opponent on election night: Alexander Downer (highly unlikely), followed by Kevin Andrews (just possible - not much of a campaign there, but in the 2002 state election a friend of mine almost unseated a senior Liberal frontbencher there on a 13% swing with almost no campaign, having answered a desperate plea for help because we still didn't have a candidate four weeks out - I'd probably have had a crack myself except that I was about to have an operation for compartment syndrome and would have been on crutches for half the campaign).
come on blair.. what about my seat of dickson? its dutton vs mcnamara. when they are offering odds just under the $3 mark for Mcnamara. do you have any sweet insight?.. seems to be a good opportunity to win money and watch dutton lose his seat.
So if you put money on, say Mcnamara, because you think he'll win, does that mean you are more likely to vote for him yourself in order to up your chances of being paid out, even if you really want to vote for Dutton? Could this work to bring in more votes for those with high odds?
Betting on the outcome of an election kinda seems like a jockey betting on the outcome of one of his/her upcoming races. Would you push your own horse as hard as possible when the horse you put $100 on is beating you?
I was looking forward to seeing Howard's concession speech, but at this stage, I think it will be much more fun watching Downer. His petulant ranting about the electorate needing to be grateful for their wonderful economic management really does seem to come from the heart. It seems to totally escape his notice that the economic boom is caused by growth in China (without which the money markets would have abandoned the $A years ago) and falling unemployment is an inevitable consequence of the demographic transition whose seeds were sown in 1945 (the baby boom) and 1972 (the pill going on the PBL). The setting of a 3% unemployment target is like setting a goal of being one year older in 12 months time. The real challenge is the participation rate. But that would take serious tax reform and sensible education investment. Federal technical colleges and tax rebates for private school fees hardly meet this benchmark! As for Kevin, I cling to the hope that he really will embark on a new Federalism and a roll back of the vertical fiscal imbalance. Haven't heard much about this in the campaign. I'm hoping this is merely a reflection of the intolerance of the swinging voter for policy.
Anyway, policy rant aside, I am anticipating Downer to do the Fraser tear drop moment this time, or to dress down the ungrateful electorate. Either of which will be fun if it happens. I plan to record the whole night of commentary from the TV card just so I have a memento.
Rooey - I'm not sure that I'd be game to pick Labor to win Dickson, but $3.00 is good value. There's actually been quite a disconnect (especially early in the campaign) between the odds on Labor to win the election and those of Labor in individual seats, and I think someone who knew what they were doing would have been able to put themselves in a position to clean up win, lose or draw.
rambo I think a jockey has more "overall influence" over a horse race than a voter over the electoral outcome.
I'd be very surprised (and delighted) to see Howard lose Bennelong. In fact it would almost be worth the plane ticket to go over and hear the announcement live. WA doesn't look so good, with Libs 50.5 to ALP 49.5 in the 5 marginals (3 ALP, 2 Lib). That might be a gain to the Libs of 1 or 2. Hopefully it won't matter by then.
So you recon Ryan will go? I've done my bit - sent my postal vote a couple of weeks ago.
Amusing to see the libs go into full on damage control with this pamphlet scandle - awesome timing!
The really, really interesting question is .. who leaked the detailed information to Labor about the planned letter box schedule? Has to be an insider, surely. Given that the male spouses of both the current member and the hopeful replacement were caught red handed, I wouldn't be surpised if there was something personal going on. Cherchez la femme? Disgruntled unsuccessful pre-selection contender? The alternative explanation that someone in the local Liberal branch had a conscience just doesn't stand the test of common sense.
The report I've heard was that the whistleblower was a local Liberal.
Don't forget its the NSW Liberal party - the world's best back-stabbers
I know, I know. Obviously a Liberal, and obviously a back stab. But it was very much a nuclear option, with many backs stabbed. Someone was very, very angry. Whose back was the target and why? It is bound to be a fascinating story.
nice to see it happen in the last stages of the campaign traditionally when the libs seem to act like Lazarus.
How many election parties are happening?!
Looking at this, it looks like the scoreboard for my tips is:
- right (or very close) on the seat count except that the independent didn't get up in Forrest
- within 0.1% of the 2PP vote at present, although that will probably move around a little on postals
- right on Bennelong and Wentworth. (The former result certainly got everyone going at our party - when John Howard thanked "the people of Bennelong", someone here yelled out "and so do we!").
- wrong on Higgins and Ryan. (The big swing I thought might be happening in the blue-ribbon Liberal seats didn't happen - the Melbourne ones hardly moved and the Ryan swing was below the Queensland average - obviously a lot of the potential Labor voters there already voted for us in 2004).
- right on Leichhardt and Forde (these two both had 14+% swings, with Leichhardt slightly larger at the time of writing)
- wrong on Brand (looks like a small swing to Labor there)
i feel privileged my little electorate (forrest) got a mention from you blair.
a reason that noel brunning the independent wouldn't have won is because he is pompous and extremely up himself :)
That's never stopped anyone from getting elected before :-) (although it helps if you can disguise it in public).
yes i know it hasn't BUT would be hard for anyone else to get up considering the geoff prosser legacy that was left.
Noel was pretending to be nice but we know better than that!
This discussion thread is closed.