Discussion: WOC Divisions for forest events

Is there a list of the current divisions and scores for the WOC forest event divisions?

As the system is rolling over 2 years, doesn't that massively disadvantage newly promoted nations as the scores from the first year will have 2 fewer runners?

They changed it a few years ago so that you count your full quota of runners from this current year + 1 less than your current quote for last years results.

e.g. Sweden have 3 men in 2017
in 2017: top 3 Middle + Long men count
from 2016: top 2 Middle + Long men count

this should put newly promoted teams at significantly less of a disadvantage, although does mean they don't have much room for error in their previous year's results, whereas an already promoted team are discarding their worst.

For some info on current standings, you can look in this thread

I might get some proper updated results done at some stage. Not sure.

Ah ok, that makes sense.

Okay, I got bored so I did draw up the current standings for the men's, on this link: current promotion standings

If I get bored again maybe I'll do the women's tomorrow.

Teams in red are Div1, blue is Div2, Yellow Div3.

All are sorted by current standings.

SWE 2016 L1 and L2 should be 53 and 50? but OK, this really doesn't changes the big picture, what really counts is located near the edges of divisions.

I've done the scores myself (I have the dubious pleasure of maintaining the official standings for IOF) and found a few minor discrepancies, but nothing that has a major impact.

Early days (especially at the div 2/div 3 boundary, where the relay counts for a lot), but:

Women

Div 1 relegation: GBR looked in a lot of trouble before this week started but FRA only had one runner in the long (and only scored 14 points) and have dropped below GBR. Hard to see anyone else under threat.

Div 2 promotion: absolutely anyone's with only 10 points covering the top five, and 42 points covering the top 10 (the last of which are CZE, who are that low because of a relay mispunch last year). CAN and EST currently lead, but without much depth for the relay, Canada would need a lot of points from the middle to have a chance. At home, Estonia are probably slight favourites.

Div 2 relegation: barring relay disaster, this is probably a four-way race between UKR (127), AUS (138), ITA (148), NZL (157). Ukraine and Italy had the weakest teams of these in the long but you'd think Ukraine would get some decent points out of Volynska in the middle. Will come down to the relay.

Div 3 promotion: Poland look certainties, a two-way race between BUL and USA for the other spot.

Men

Div 1 relegation: a tight three-way race here between EST (367), GBR (380) and CZE (385), with FIN (420) also a possibility to get sucked down into it if the relay goes badly.

Div 2 promotion: RUS (252) currently just ahead of LAT (244); they'd be further ahead had Tsvetkov finished yesterday. UKR (223), AUT (203) and DEN (202) are possibilities but would probably need something special in the relay, especially the last two.

Div 2 relegation: most likely two from BUL (85), IRL (94) and HUN (97), although NZL (110) and AUS (129) still have a bit of work to do.

Div 3 promotion: Italy and Germany are 60 ahead of anyone else and will surely go straight back up.

Have updated my table to include women's on a separate tab. Some minor errors in places I'm told, will get a better look to eradicate discrepancies at some stage.

@blairtrewin: CAN and EST currently lead, but without much depth for the relay, Canada would need a lot of points from the middle to have a chance.

Don't think Canada have a women's relay team: http://www.orienteering.ca/2017/06/team-canada-at-....

Speaking of Canada--they have a few men but no one in the long. What is that about?

What is that about?

Size isn't everything?

Quick update after men's middle:

Div 1 relegation - looks like GBR unless they have a great relay.

Div 2 promotion - UKR have inside running after Kratov's bronze today. RUS (54 points behind) would probably need to be close to the relay medals to have a shot, but you couldn't rule that out. In between them, LAT are 34 points back.

Div 2 relegation - IRL look certain to take one spot. HUN need to beat BUL by 2 places, or NZ by 6, to stay up. Others are probably safe unless they have a relay disaster.

Div 3 promotion - ITA and GER remain almost certain - they didn't score much today but neither did anyone else (the highest placed division 3 runner was 45th).

I've updated all tables on the previous spreadsheet:
Current Promotion Standings

As Blair is probably asleep, I'll give a summary for the Women's promotions battles before the morning's relay:

Div1 Relegation
France look pretty certain to go down. They trail GBR by 51pts, meaning their relay team need to beat GBR by 13 places, or finish in the top 5 (+ GB finish low). Realistically, probably only a MP can save them.

Div2 Promotion
Promotion is a much tighter affair with 3 teams (EST, LAT, CAN) all within 6pts (2 relay places). Nobody else for another 50 or so points, so it's just them in it. As is, Canada don't appear to have a team, so will not be promoted this year.
Still, that means as Estonia & Latvia are separated by 3pts they will have a straight up showdown. Whichever team beats the other will be promoted.
Exciting

Div2 Relegation
Unfortunately not a great day for Australia today means they will be going down (bar massive shock / multiple MPs). Italy look set to join them, but could save themselves by beating Ukraine by 7 places or New Zealand by 9.

Div3 Promotion
Poland are promoted (unless HKG get a top 2, and Bulgaria and USA make top 5 - who knows?).
The 2nd spot is Bulgaria's to lose, they'll have it unless USA beat them by 5 places in the relay. Nobody else with a real shot.

Good luck all.

I have Canada 10 points further back, otherwise match Colm's assessment. Barring miracles, Australia would need either two mispunches, or one mispunch and a 5-place win over Italy.

Colm, I think Finland men are a few points down on what you say (38th place for 23 points in 2017 long, not 38points). Unlikely to be relevant but just in case...

Thank you, both issues updated.

1st leg of the relay is good for AUS, with IRL, HUN and NZE well down. GBR at risk of relegation from Div 1?

I've updated (almost) all the results. The mass start for leg 3 runners messes with the times a bit so the slower teams have some weird results. The Official Results list Bulgaria and Belarus as ahead of Australia and New Zealand, but show slower overall times beside their names. Not sure how it works out, but it looks to me like NZ & AUS have beaten them. In the women's, that is.

Anyway, it doesn't effect any promotion / relegation, so I can still give those updates.

Men's Promotions:
Ukraine (3 places)
Germany (2 places)
Italy (2 places)

Men's Relegations:
Great Britain (2 places)
Bulgaria (1 place)
Ireland (1 place)

Women's Promotions:
Latvia (3 places) - huge relay result from them.
Poland (2 places)
Bulgaria (2 places)

Women's Relegations:
France (2 places)
Australia (1 place)
Italy (1 place)

Looks like teams in the mass start have been placed after other teams, even if they had slow last legs. Which explains AUS/NZL vs BUL/BLR in the women's.

However in the Men's that is not the case for example with IRL & TUR

For the Women, with the mass start taking place 105:00 into the race, it looks like Italy (149:30) should be placed ahead of mass start teams of NZL (150:07)/AUS (151:26), which actually swap positions on the adjusted time.

feet is correct - teams that started in the mass start are (or should be) ranked after all other teams.

Okay, so even if the combined 3 legs time is slower, they still beat any team that was in the mass start? Interesting.

Rule 24.7

Who decides when the mass start occurs? I find it strange how teams like NZ/AUS in the womens lost out on places due to the mass start ruling yet they were finishing comfortably within the time limit. Especially with the potential of it making a difference to relegation and promotion battles.
Also to my knowledge I'm not sure the athletes knew beforehand there was going to be mass start. If known team orders could have changed to frontload to avoid the mass start.

I found out about the mass start at 16:40 [edited to correct], five minutes prior. It was a surprise to me. Not sure that knowing about it in advance would have led to us doing anything differently with the exception of my extremely truncated warmup.

So total maximum time for the relay is 270 minutes but the mass start already after 105? Seems kind of stupid...

TV?

Similar story with the men's. I just happened to overhear one of the officials telling someone else the mass start would be in 15 mins. It seemed like they had planned it but just hadn't told anyone in advance as they had all the people they needed ready for handing out the maps.

Possibly indirectly TV, in as much as the women's start was 2 hours after the men and I guess they didn't want men's changeovers happening during the women's start. Does seem strange that it wasn't advertised in advance in the bulletins. Probably came into play more this year because the times were much more spread out than is usually the case in WOC relays.